Demand Forecasting

IN THE MODERN DATA+AI PLATFORM

So you’ve got your sales and product data in your Data Lakehouse, and have Machine Learning tools aplenty – surely its easy to build a model to predict demand?

Unfortunately, while it’s possible to take the first step of predicting sales with some success, many people confuse Demand Forecasting with Sales Forecasting. They aren’t the same – let’s find out why.

UNDERSTAND THE BASICS

It’s common for people to mistake demand forecasting for sales forecasting. However, there’s a critical difference between the two. Sales forecasting predicts the number of goods or services sold, while demand forecasting factors in what you could have sold if all conditions were ideal. This distinction is essential for making informed business decisions and ensuring accurate predictions.

BUILDING A FOUNDATION

A comprehensive demand forecast model is integral if you want to make informed and effective business decisions. This model delves into the intricate relationships between sales, demand, sell-out rates, wastage, and substitutability. By considering these factors, businesses can create a solid foundation for accurate forecasting and optimisation.

SIMPLIFYING THE PROCESS

Developing a solution for demand forecasting may seem like a complex undertaking, but starting with a simple approach and gradually adding complexity is integral to success. By storing data in a Data Lakehouse and utilising various tools, businesses can explore data and build insightful models step by step. Each stage of the process delivers benefits, making the journey more manageable.

REAL-WORLD APPLICATION

Demand forecasting is a crucial aspect of various industries. For instance, convenience stores face a considerable challenge in managing the “bakers list” as it requires balancing inventory levels for fresh products. However, building accurate models using Python and SQL on a Data Lakehouse has proven to be an effective solution to this challenge. The scalability of cloud computing further enhances the effectiveness of this approach.

Arreoblue provide clients with a report detailing the opportunities for data to improve profitability. In the form of use cases with a quantified impact and understanding of the effort including high level architecture that would support the use case.

This could then be executed by client teams with the support of Arreoblue using an Accelerate, where Arreoblue will engage in hands on rapid delivery in 3 – 5 weeks.

OUR FRAMEWORK

Assess

Start the journey to enable your data vision.
   

Assessment that will understand the key business objectives, critical outcomes, current capabilities and challenges with recommendations of how to move forwards. Assess is an initial two-day assessment to understand how data could benefit your business or business area. 

 

Outputs 

  • Value Map 
  • Use case summary with complexity rating considering people, process, and technology 
  • High level architecture to enable use cases  
  • Delivery considerations & team profile 
  • Business Case Support 

Benefits 

  • Quickly understand the opportunities for data in your business 
  • Remove blockers with recommendations that can be actioned 
  • Skills and technology identified to accelerate  
Accelerate

The power of Accelerate.

Validate business value, theories and remove blockers to projects with a short timeboxed sprint(s) of 3 to 5 weeks.  The Accelerate program is designed get momentum into a project via a short-fixed term low risk engagement that can be started and executed quickly with your teams. This can deliver an MVP or unblock critical projects. Time frames ranging from 3 to 5 weeks.  

 

Outputs 

  • Executive Summary 
  • Accelerate Charter with defined success criteria, blockers, stakeholders & value 
  • MVP, or tangible asset to be agreed in scoping 
  • Templated comms and reporting
  • Recommendations & advice for moving forwards and amplification 

Benefits 

  • Unblock/Accelerate business value 
  • Workable solution and tangible output  
  • Confidence in solution & approach
  • Transfer of skills 
  • Enablement of employees 
Amplify

Build on the momentum you have and engage the business.

Demonstrate your accelerated time to value with further business engagement to ensure wider stakeholder buy in. Amplify is a tailored engagement, it would typically run over 3 – 12 months to build out significant data culture & capability. We continue building on the foundations of Accelerate to define and deliver more value .

 

Outputs 

  • Executive Summary 
  • Sprint report highlighting value, progress and challenges 
  • Show & Tell sessions run by the team to share progress and value (recorded for wider circulation) 
  • Future sprint plans and goals  
  • Large scale tailored data deliverables

Benefits 

  • Visibility of upcoming goals and deliverables 
  • Business engagement and awareness  
  • Team presentation skills 
  • Building a transparent, open and communicative culture
  • Credibility at all levels 

WHY ARREOBLUE?

While demand forecasting is complex you can still get quick results. We have helped clients start demand forecasting or double the accuracy of their existing demand forecasting in weeks by taking an iterative approach focused on empowering you.

Databricks Logo

Start the journey to enable your data vision.   

Assessment that will understand the key business objectives, critical outcomes, current capabilities and challenges with recommendations of how to move forwards. Assess is an initial two-day assessment to understand how data could benefit your business or business area. 

Outputs 

  • Value Map 
  • Use case summary with complexity rating considering people, process, and technology 
  • High level architecture to enable use cases  
  • Delivery considerations & team profile 
  • Business Case Support 

Benefits 

  • Quickly understand the opportunities for data in your business 
  • Remove blockers with recommendations that can be actioned 
  • Skills and technology identified to accelerate  

The power of Accelerate.

Validate business value, theories and remove blockers to projects with a short timeboxed sprint(s) of 3 to 5 weeks.  The Accelerate program is designed get momentum into a project via a short-fixed term low risk engagement that can be started and executed quickly with your teams. This can deliver an MVP or unblock critical projects. Time frames ranging from 3 to 5 weeks.  

 

Outputs 

  • Executive Summary 
  • Accelerate Charter with defined success criteria, blockers, stakeholders & value 
  • MVP, or tangible asset to be agreed in scoping 
  • Templated comms and reporting
  • Recommendations & advice for moving forwards and amplification 

Benefits 

  • Unblock/Accelerate business value 
  • Workable solution and tangible output  
  • Confidence in solution & approach
  • Transfer of skills 
  • Enablement of employees 

Build on the momentum you have and engage the business.

Demonstrate your accelerated time to value with open demos and business engagement to ensure wider stakeholder buy in. 

The Amplify program is designed to do two things:

  1. Share your progress with your teams, users and business stakeholders to ensure buy in and excitement
  2. Continue building on the foundations of Accelerate to define and deliver more value

Outputs 

  • Executive Summary 
  • Sprint report highlighting value, progress and challenges 
  • Show & Tell sessions run by the team to share progress and value (recorded for wider circulation) 
  • Future sprint plans and goals  

Benefits 

  • Visibility of upcoming goals and deliverables 
  • Business engagement and awareness  
  • Team presentation skills 
  • Building a transparent, open and communicative culture
  • Credibility at all levels 

Are you ready to realise the value of your data?​