Black Friday has become a cornerstone of the global retail calendar, driving billions in consumer spending and shaping retailers’ strategies worldwide. Yet, if there’s one thing we can predict about Black Friday, it’s that no two years are alike. Economic pressures, geopolitical tensions, changing shopping habits, and even unexpected global events like pandemics can completely alter the landscape of this critical period.
Retailers face an increasingly complex environment this Black Friday, navigating not just consumer expectations but also supply chain disruptions, rising costs, and the challenges of integrating technology like AI into their decision-making processes. As the 2024 season approaches, it’s time to rethink how we leverage data responsibly and strategically in an ever-changing market.
Black Friday 2024: A Snapshot of Trends
In 2024, consumer consensus is cautious optimism. As inflation eases across the UK and the US, spending on non-essential items has slowly but surely chartered into positive territory for the first time since Q3 2021. With that said, there is still an undertone of financial caution. According to statistics from Klaviyo and Forbes:
- Consumers are still bargain-hunting: Nearly 73% of shoppers plan to spend between £188–£1,883, with many actively seeking discounts and promotions.
- Digital and hybrid shopping dominate: Over 58% of consumers plan to mix online and in-store shopping, while 34.6% remain committed to online-only purchases.
- Pre-Black Friday shopping is on the rise: More than half (52.6%) of shoppers intend to hunt for deals before Black Friday, spreading the sales period across weeks rather than days.
But beneath these statistics lie a bed of challenges for retailers. Disruptions in global shipping, rising freight costs, and geopolitical tensions complicate supply chains, while AI-powered forecasting models struggle to adapt to the unique dynamics of Black Friday sales.
The Challenges of Predicting Black Friday with AI
Black Friday introduces complexities that challenge traditional data models, particularly AI-driven forecasting systems. Unlike more predictable periods, this shopping event is characterised by unique consumer behaviours, rendering previous data sets unreliable. Even items that sold well last year could sell poorly this year due to changes in consumer sentiment, product availability, or external influences like geopolitical events or weather.
For instance, recent shipping disruptions between Asia and Europe, stemming from Middle East conflicts, have compelled retailers to opt for longer, alternative routes, resulting in delays and increased costs.
Additionally, with 68.8% of shoppers planning to participate in both Black Friday and Cyber Monday, the overlap can lead to uneven sales distribution, which traditional models might not accurately predict (Vogue Business).
This unpredictability can lead to costly errors, such as overstocking items that don’t sell or underestimating demand for popular products. Therefore, retailers are forced to juggle automation with human oversight each year, ensuring their strategies remain adaptable and responsive to real-time developments.
Deploying Responsible AI for Black Friday Success
At Arreoblue, our Responsible AI Framework prioritises transparency, human judgment, and adaptability—key to navigating the unpredictable nature of Black Friday. While AI can provide critical insights, it is essential to understand its limitations and adapt its use for extraordinary circumstances. Here’s how to approach it effectively:
Know When to Use (or Pause) AI
Not all AI models are equipped to handle the unique challenges of Black Friday. In periods of extreme volatility, human expertise often provides the agility needed for real-time decisions and last-minute adjustments.
Prioritise Real-Time Data
Historical data may not capture the nuances of fast-evolving Black Friday trends. Supplementing AI with real-time data ensures decisions are based on the most accurate and up-to-date insights, improving responsiveness to consumer behaviour shifts.
Blend Automation with Human Judgment
AI can automate complex tasks, but its outputs need thoughtful interpretation. Combining AI-driven analytics with human oversight allows teams to monitor trends and adapt strategies as needed, creating a balance between precision and intuition.
Adapt for Hybrid Shopping
With more consumers blending online and in-store shopping, retailers must ensure their data systems support a seamless omnichannel experience. This includes synchronising inventory and promotions across channels to meet diverse customer expectations.
Shaping the Future of Black Friday with Data-Driven Insight
Black Friday remains a high-stakes event, and success lies in understanding its complexities rather than relying on one-size-fits-all solutions. By deploying AI responsibly, prioritising adaptability, and embracing a data-driven but human-led approach, retailers can navigate the season’s challenges and emerge stronger.
At Arreoblue, we specialise in helping businesses like yours make smarter, faster decisions with data. Whether it’s optimising your supply chain, improving sales forecasting, or ensuring your AI is working for you—not against you—our experts deliver solutions that empower your team and drive results.
Want to learn more? Contact one of our experts today to see how we can create your bespoke solution!